As soon as impregnable GOP fortresses, Kansas and South Carolina at the moment are critical Senate battlefields
Almost every poll published since the first poll, including a poll in mid-September from Marshall's own allies, has shown close competition and both sides are behaving accordingly. Outside Democratic groups are spending a lot, and national Republicans have also continued to invest money to help Marshall – money that they would certainly prefer to spend elsewhere with so many other Senate GOP seats at risk.
Marshall still has the upper hand in a state that has voted Republicans in every presidential election since 1968 and will almost certainly do so again. The Congressman is in much weaker shape than he should be, however, and Bollier, who was himself a moderate Republican until two years ago, managed to win enough ticket splinters to prevail.
• • SC-Sen (probably R to Lean R): Almost every poll in South Carolina has shown a close race in the Senate between Republican incumbent Lindsey Graham and Democrat Jaime Harrison spend massively his opponent. External groups on both sides have taken notice and started tossing millions into a state that hasn't elected a single Democrat to nationwide office since 2006.
It would of course still be a big surprise if Graham lost. South Carolina is likely to cast its electoral votes for the GOP ticket (although this race is also unusually close), so it's up to Harrison to gain enough crossover support to prevail over the next month. And while almost every poll shows significant numbers of Conservatives distrusting Graham, his high-profile role as chairman of the Senate Judiciary Committee gives him a chance to attract skeptics during the Supreme Court's affirmation battle. Harrison has had a very tough race against the three-time Senator, however, and if anyone can create a surprise, they can.
• • AR-02 (probably R to Lean R): Republican MP French Hill faces a well-funded challenge from Democrat Joyce Elliott in the 2nd Congressional District of Arkansas, a seat in the Little Rock area, who supported Donald Trump 52-42 four years ago. A number of recent polls have shown that there is tough competition here: A poll for Hendrix College in early September Hill found only 48-46 ahead when Joe Biden led 49-45, while a Brilliant Corners poll was conducted weeks later for national democratic groups Elliott with the same lead over Biden (49-46). An Elliott employee at ALG Research fell right in the middle in late September shows a 48-48 tie.
National Republicans haven't released conflicting numbers, and the Congressional Leadership Fund's recent decision to book $ 500,000 advertising time here is the best indicator that the GOP's polls are competitive too. National Democrats agree as they too place ads in this district. That seat is still tough turf for Team Blue, and Hill himself turned down a credible challenger between 52 and 46 during the 2018 Democratic wave, but Elliott is one to watch.
• • AZ-06 (Lean R to Tossup): Republican MP David Schweikert has always easily won re-election in the 6th Congressional District of Arizona, a seat in Scottsdale and north of Phoenix supports Donald Trump 52-42, but he faces the battle of his political career against the Democrat Hiral Tipirneni.
At the end of July Schweikert signed a contract with the ethics committee of the house, under which he accepted a formal reprimand and admitted to 11 different violations of congressional rules and campaign funding laws. Tipirneni and her allies have run ads portraying the congressman as corrupt, while Schweikert's incriminating bills as a result of the two-year investigation have given him limited resources to respond.
While Schweikert is in a bad place, he could still prevail on this historically red square. Tipirneni and National Democrats have published several polls showing close competition, and some of them even find the incumbent ahead of them. However, these polls also show a tight race for the president in this well-educated suburban district, making Schweikert's job even more difficult.
• • MN-01 (Lean R to Tossup): Republican Jim Hagedorn defeated Democrat Dan Feehan in an open seat contest for Minnesota 1st Congressional District in 2018 with 50.1-49.7, and their rematch this cycle appears to be just as competitive. In the past few months, Feehan and his allies have released three polls shows a close racewhile Hawthorn waited until midsummer Publication of an anti-Diluvian survey from early March carried out before the pandemic turned American life upside down. Both parties continue to spend millions in this southern district of Minnesota.
This seat swung from 50-48 Obama to 53-39 Trump, but there is also reason to believe that it is moving to the left again. On most polls, Joe Biden is doing significantly better than Hillary Clinton across the state and in mostly white rural areas like this one. This may be very bad news for Hagedorn, who could get into trouble if Biden takes the 1st Ward this time.
• • NJ-02 (Lean R to Tossup):: If newcomer Jeff Van Drew believed that his decision to leave the Democratic Party last year would allow him easy re-election in New Jersey's 2nd Ward, he was very wrong.
Democrat Amy Kennedy and her allies did published several polls shows them ahead while Joe Biden also holds the edge in a South Jersey seat that Donald Trump favored 51-46. Monmouth University also released an independent poll in early October that found Kennedy and Biden a 49-44 and 48-45 edge, respectively. If Republicans have better polls, they haven't shared them.
• • OH-01 (Lean R to Tossup): Republicans rigged Ohio 1st Congressional District earlier in the decade to keep Rep. Steve Chabot in office for as long as he wanted, but Team Blue's growing strength in the suburbs threatens its hold in that Cincinnati seat .
Democrat Kate Schroder and her allies have published polls shows her in a close race with Chabot as Joe Biden enjoys a small head start in a district that supported Donald Trump 51-45;; Republicans, on the other hand, haven't dropped any numbers here. Large outside groups from both sides have also started advertising in the past few weeks, which is another sign that things are tight.
• • PA-07 (Lean D to Likely D): Freshman's Democratic MP Susan Wild turned the Pennsylvania 7th district upside down last cycle and it will be difficult for Republicans to deny her a second term. A survey from Muhlenberg College in late September found wild to 52-39while Joe Biden 51-44 led that Lehigh Valley seat that Hillary Clinton 49-48 with close assistance. We haven't seen any other numbers here, but none serious external issues from both parties indicates that the big players on either side don't see this as a particularly competitive race.
• • SC-02 (sure R to probable R): Republican Rep. Joe Wilson has spent a decade without serious Democratic opponents in South Carolina 2nd District, but Attorney Adair Ford Boroughs collected a credible amount of money for this competition.
This headquarters is in the suburbs of Augusta and Columbia. supports Donald Trump 56-39That's why it's a very tough lawn for Team Blue. However, with Senate candidate Jaime Harrison running a very strong nationwide campaign, it is possible that Democrats are doing better here than they have in a long time. It would still be difficult for boroughs to beat Wilson, who hasn't done much new since he shamefully "You're lying!" at Barack Obama during a congressional address in 2009, but this competition is worth keeping an eye on.
• • VA-05 (probably R to Lean R): Democrat Cameron Webb and his allies have released three polls that show he is just behind Republican Bob Good in the 5th Congressional District of Virginia, a seat that stretches from Charlottesville to the south-central part of the state . Republicans haven't responded with better numbers, and the Congressional Leadership Fund's decision to book $ 750,000 here in late September shows they are also seeing a competitive contest.
It will still be difficult for Webb to win in such a red place. Trump card carried the district 53-42and even Corey Stewart won 50-48 here while he lost the 2018 Senate race to Democratic incumbent Tim Kaine by a brutal 57:41 across the state. However, Webb is running a strong campaign and he might come up with a surprise.
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