Abbreviated Pundit Roundup: America will get a targeted take a look at Trump and doesn't like what it sees
This Boston Herald poll is another Biden +14 alongside CNN +16, USC Dornsife +12 and NBC / WSJ +14. Will it take? Trump is doing his best to see that it is. Pro tip: It's more 1980 than 2016.
Trump supports craters after being infected with coronavirus, a new poll by FPU / Herald shows
The coronavirus catch has been disastrous to President Trump's hopes for re-election. Support for the president has plummeted since news of the infection broke, allowing Democratic candidate Joe Biden to open a double-digit head start, a new Franklin Pierce University poll in the Boston Herald shows.
The statewide poll shows that instead of a sympathy factor for Trump, the Republican president's polls have dropped astonishingly since he revealed his diagnosis last Friday.
In two days of polling before Trump received COVID, President Biden only followed Biden by 46-41%. In the three days of the survey following the diagnosis of the coronavirus, Biden had a 55-34% lead. This means that Biden's lead from before COVID to after COVID has grown by a whopping 16 points.
Among all 1,003 registered voters in the statewide Franklin Pierce-Herald poll, Biden has a 51-37% lead over Trump less than a month before election day. Three percent support a third party candidate, while 8 percent say they are still undecided …
The survey also found that COVID-19 is by far the main theme of the campaign. A third of all likely voters name the coronavirus as their top priority, while 19% opted for work and the economy and 10% for social justice and racial equality.
Europe's second wave of Covid begins to develop from young to old
Hospital stays and deaths rise across the continent as fall infections spread to older, more vulnerable people
According to the European Center for Disease Prevention and Control, cases under 65 are on the rise in most European countries. As a result, hospital stays and deaths are also on the rise, which stayed low for most of the summer, while infections spread among young people who are less likely to get seriously ill.
Many European countries are currently recording more cases than in spring, but that's partly due to better detection. The health emergency is not as serious as it was at the time when only a fraction of those infected were tested for the virus and some hospitals in countries like Italy were overrun by seriously ill Covid-19 patients.
In the UK, however, infections in older age groups rose sharply at the end of September, according to studies by Imperial College London. According to official figures, hospital stays for Covid 19 patients more than doubled to more than 2,000 in September. The death toll reached 588 for the month ended September 28, more than twice as many as in August.
This country has over 300 million people and we chose someone who could really be in the bottom 20 or 30 (not percent) https://t.co/oVTgxIwvjy
– Isaac Chotiner (@IChotiner) October 5, 2020
Biden's wide lead in polls following the debate is causing Republicans to panic
"Republicans are in big trouble, I think," said former Senator Judd Gregg (R-N.H.), A staff member at The Hill.
“In almost all swing states that are supposedly involved, independent women will have the decisive vote. That vote was center-right historically, but these people are totally frustrated with the president. You find his style and behavior inconsistent and he doesn't get that voice anywhere. That's the swing vote … and I think he lost it. The people have made up their minds. He's in big trouble. It'll be a tough choice for the folks on the menu with him. "
When asked if it was too late for Trump to turn things around, Gregg replied, "Yes."
Trump is now proving – at the expense of his own health and that of his closest allies – that he does not take seriously the top election problem that has already killed more than 200,000 Americans
3/4 of Rs buy his approach, but 60% or more of all voters, women and seniors don't
– John Harwood (@JohnJHarwood) October 5, 2020
Tim Miller / The Bulwark:
The Strangest 90 Seconds in the President's History
Don't cry for Donnie, America. The truth is, he never left you.
First, Trump takes off his mask very strongly, very hard. This is a man who is still on several experimental drugs for a deadly virus that is highly contagious and that spreads through the air. I think he thought he would look "weak" with the mask on? I would think he wants to show that he has actually "learned a lot" since the COVID closed. But apparently, when all the infected geniuses from the west wing got their heads together (via Zoom) to figure out what the optics of the President's return should look like, Lessons Learned came to Übermensch in a distant second.
So we get a madman whose face is panned under a 2mm layer of orange powder, jacked on steroids, struggling to breathe – and doesn't care about the people around him.
And I have to give it to him: Trump Nails this picture.
Maggie Haberman and Annie Karni / NY Times:
Trump's campaign saw an opportunity. He undermined it.
According to some advisors, the health crisis was an opportunity for a political setback to take a new, more sensitive stance on the coronavirus. But the candidate didn't stick to the narrative.
And the president could use this to show, from now until the second presidential debate, scheduled for October 15th, that the disease is serious but can be combated and that he is ready to re-enter the campaign.
That was the hope, but it has been severely undermined by the behavior of the president in recent days – no more than on Monday when he tweeted the nation: "Don't be afraid of Covid." Don't let it dominate your life! "without acknowledging that he is far better cared for as a president than the average person. His comments signaled a far more likely reality: Mr. Trump and his aides' unpredictable handling of his illness will remind voters of his administration's failures and efforts to Downplaying the deadly pandemic for six months.
It is hardly the first time that Mr. Trump has undermined the wishes of his aides. He has contradicted them on issues ranging from China policy to the preparation of the debate last week.
Over the weekend, Mr Trump's political advisors said they weren't sure who they were up against: Mr Trump is widely viewed as a person incapable of showing empathy. The hope, however, was that discussing his own experiences would help him manage the pandemic in the future and could have political benefits.
No indicators for non-response bias. Weighted sample for party registration and D + 1 by party ID.
Another reason this is a particularly difficult result for the president: The last PA poll in Monmouth was arguably his best result of the last month
– Nate Cohn (@Nate_Cohn) October 6, 2020
Aaron Kall / USA Today:
The Harris-Pence vice-presidential debate is hugely important, and not just because of Trump's COVID
Are Harris and Pence Ready to Become President? Can a debate be civil? And does Pence have a prayer to save Trump's campaign? What we will learn on Wednesday.
With Trump's health and the many other obstacles facing the campaign, Pence has even more at stake in 2020. There are reasons to believe that Pence Biden's success story can repeat in the 2012 debate. He will again benefit from low expectations given Harris' high profile record and experience. And it will be prevented from launching a full throttle attack against Trump as he continues to recover from COVID, also a potential advantage for Pence.
"For the vice-presidential debate, if you are following CDC guidelines, that debate should be virtual," said Rochelle Walensky, chief infectious disease at Massachusetts General Hospital and professor at Harvard Medical School. https://t.co/HauczNd8mV
– Peter Wallsten (@peterwallsten), October 6, 2020
Washington's worst kept secret
IT IS OVER? Everyone in Washington thinks that, but doesn't want to say out loud: President Donald Trump will lose this election in 28 days, probably by a large margin.
A growing number of insiders, including many Republicans, venture privately – that this result is unlikely to be clear days or weeks later on election night.
And Trump's collapse will likely take Republican control of the Senate with it.
Is that a certainty? No. We all remember 2016. But the system flashes red …
But we all remember 2016 again. So there is a silent conspiracy to emphasize the uncertainty and stress for readers and viewers that anything could still happen.
Here the protocols of journalism require a meaty paragraph of qualifiers and caveats Known in the business as the "Graf to be sure". In the event of a Trump victory, I can use the following as evidence that you were warned that this thesis may be wrong:
He will lose. The question is, will he lose big?
I want to flatter myself that the GOP outcry is due to @qjurecic and I being so persuasive. Unfortunately, I think the reality of what is frightening to them reflects the simmering understanding among the moderates that Barrett's affirmation would be inherently transgressive and intolerable. https://t.co/af19ISY2gp
– Susan Hennessey (@Susan_Hennessey) October 6, 2020
Quinta Jurecic and Susan Hennessey / Atlantic:
The reckless race for confirmation from Amy Coney Barrett justifies the packing in court
We used to reject packing on the pitch as a dangerous game. Now we believe that this is the best way to restore the legitimacy of the Court of Justice.
We understand these objections; until recently we shared them and dismissed court wraps as institutional corrosive and politically dubious. But not anymore. The current fight for the Supreme Court changes the calculation; If Barrett is upheld and Trump loses the election, adherence to norms and acceptance of the status quo on Jan. 20 will do more damage than enlarging the court. We are now more sadly than angry to believe that adding judges may be the only way to restore the institutional legitimacy of the Court.
Tim Alberta / Politico:
4 fun feelings around 2020
With 28 days to go, it's time to get up on your feet.
However, I believe there is a silent majority versus Trump card. In my travels, this group could be referred to as "the Curmudgeons for Children". They're younger Gen Xers and older millennials: people with college degrees around the ages of 28 to 42 who are non-ideological, who are not partisan, who consume little political news, who seldom or never vote, but who are taking polls this fall could just flood because Donald Trump annoying You.
Is that too simple? Perhaps. But I was amazed at how many people I met who fit this description. They start careers, start families, buy their first houses – build a life – and really don't have the time or inclination to get involved in politics. They don't know much about a party's political platform or legislation. What they do know is that Trump irritates them to the extreme. He reminds her of the easy sub-students of a college kegger; Its roughness was entertaining at first, but the plot turned out terribly thin. You just want to get rid of him and get on with the party.
In addition to CNN +16 and NBC / WSJ +14, there are:
New York Times:
Families struggle for compensation after meat workers die of Covid-19
Employees at a JBS meat processing facility in Greeley, Colorado fell ill or died, but their families have so far been denied compensation.
Several attorneys familiar with Greeley workers' compensation claims said the filing of documents – as well as the rejections – posed additional hurdles for workers at the plant, many of whom do not speak English as a first language.
"It's a game of attrition," said Mack Babcock, an attorney who represents the family of Daniel Avila Loma, a JBS employee who died of Covid-19 in April at the age of 65 and whose claim for compensation came in June has been provisionally rejected. "I think it's immoral and I think it's bad."
Don't forget that Trump generally wants to give the Batista brothers, who own JBS liability protection, one of the stumbling blocks.
In order to …
Don't talk to me about 2016 unless you're willing to talk to me about 1980 too
because right now it feels like the incumbent is in a difficult position from 1980 with the potential for a late break from the challenger
It's only potential, but if you want to "tighten up" me … 🧐 pic.twitter.com/qJpuAaYwSv
– Greg Dworkin (@DemFromCT) October 6, 2020
Check out this WV poll of Trump turning 18 in a state he won at 42 in 2016. This is his slide after the debate, just as it was in 1980.