Last week that aggregate achieved a 54.1 to 45.9 advantage for Democratic candidate Joe Biden, so we saw a net shift of 0.6 points towards Biden. But … look at the recent polls with the bright Biden numbers. CNN had Biden on 58-42, Ipsos-Reuters 57-43 and NBC News 58-42 (among others). Why didn't the unit move more aggressively towards Biden?
I've talked about partisan non-response bias before, and I think some of that is happening here. This is a phenomenon where a candidate does so poorly that their supporters turn off the polls, making them less likely to answer polls. We saw this in 2012 after the first presidential debate, when President Barack Obama stinked the joint. The polls seemed to indicate that Republican candidate Mitt Romney had made massive election wins. In reality, it was all fleeting – Liberals too depressed to answer any questions.
There's a lot to demoralize Republicans but nothing more than to see their alleged Superman president line up with COVID-19 in the White House. That's why a confused Trump is walking around claiming he's immune and telling Fox this morning that he's "a perfect doctor's sample". So the query model above reduces these massive query results. In other words, things could be even better for Biden.
But national presidential elections are won at the state level because of our stupid system. So where do we stand?
Let's start with our base map. I still can't believe that Texas isn't red by default.
I use the Economist's modeled aggregates for all states except the single-vote counties in Maine and Nebraska. The ones I'm looking at right now averaging the sparse polls we have from these locations. Note that Alaska and Montana are likely to be competitive as well, but may be the two most difficult states to survey, so few will venture there. I'd like to tell people that if they want to sound smart to their friends, they'll get close to Biden or win Alaska.
Pennsylvania remains the tipping point, and the fact that all three states of the upper Midwest are giving Biden a huge lead of 6.6 points or more really shows how impossible Trump's re-election bid has become. Not only is this an election campaign, but it puts this race outside the realm of chaos and violence.
Biden expanded his lead in every single state except Wisconsin, where he was just a hair down. This is a good opportunity to see the relationship between national and government surveys. According to The Economist, Biden scores 0.6 points over Trump. Profits in these states are running in the same direction, with only Texas really showing up outside of the general area.
Texas is really interesting. Check out yesterday's polls from the state:
Something real is happening there. If Biden is really close to turning Texas around, we're really looking into the possibility of over 400 votes for Biden and a number of more important goodies (like Sens. MJ Hegar and Jamie Harrison, a large) Senate majority, a larger house majority, state legislatures, and one cathartic blanket rejection of Trumpism). Let's make it happen!
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