Morning Digest: Our newest cheat sheet provides you an summary of each main legislative race this 12 months
The path for Democrats to flip the Texas House is straightforward: Beto O & # 39; Rourke had 76 out of 150 seats – a mere majority – when he ran for the U.S. Senate in 2018. Nine of these are held by the GOP. This is the number Democrats need to take control of the Chamber.
There are also opportunities for Team Blue in districts that O & # 39; Rourke narrowly lost, such as the 92nd and 96th districts in the suburbs of Dallas, where rapid diversification and backlash against Trump led to the Democrats' 2018 reduced the errors by three or four points. Democrats also have to hold on to the 12 seats they switched in 2018, despite all of O & # 39; Rourke being worn.
Elsewhere, Democrats in North Carolina, Minnesota, and Pennsylvania could gain trifectas (control of the governorship and both legislatures). In Kansas, meanwhile, there is potential for Democrats to break the GOP super majorities in both chambers and empower Governor Laura Kelly in the form of veto power. Other pickup options for Democrats include the Senate and Arizona House, Iowa House, and Michigan House. Republicans, on the other hand, play defense almost everywhere.
Here you can review all the data that we discussed in all of these chambers.
● GA-Sen-B: Republican MP Doug Collins airs a new commercial for the all-party primary in which incumbent GOP Kelly Loeffler is beaten up for allegedly once hanging a portrait in her Atlanta mansion of the "most brutal mass murderer in history" and no Who represents the narrator is not talking about Attila the Hun. Instead, the spot explains that Loeffler exhibited a painting by the late communist dictator Mao Zedong from China, with the narrator arguing that she "lied about hanging the $ 60,000 portrait of Mao in her Buckhead estate".
The announcer then ties Loeffler to modern China by saying, "Your love for your money explains the Chinese flag that Loeffler held on to their New York Stock Exchange. "(Loeffler's husband, Jeff Spokesman, is the CEO of the company that owns the New York Stock Exchange.) The spot closes with the arguments:" And Loeffler's refusal to cut ties with China-controlled companies that are making her millions. Because Kelly Loeffler is a false conservative who takes care of herself. "
Republicans have launched xenophobic anti-China attacks against Democrats in races across the country for the past few months, but Mao didn't appear in the internal party brawl between Loeffler and Collins until their debate on Monday. Collins addressed the issue by asking if she still "had the $ 56,000 portrait of Chairman Mao hanging in your foyer as it appeared on social media." Loeffler responded by accusing her opponent of launching another sexist attack against her, but she made no mention of the painting.
The Atlanta Journal Constitution states that a Collins aide said after the event the congressman was referring to a 2018 Facebook picture showing a copy of an Andy Warhol painting by Mao that was in Loeffler's home in Atlanta's affluent Buckhead neighborhood hangs. The photo was deleted from Facebook shortly after the debate, despite appearing in Collins' ad.
Loeffler's spokesman initially replied that the picture used by Collins was "photoshopped" and that neither Loeffler nor spokesman had a Mao portrait. However, he added that it was not clear if the painting was ever hung in her villa. For his part, Collins insisted that the picture was very real.
Loeffler, meanwhile, is running a Fox News spot re-connecting Collins with someone who Georgia Republican voters may despise more than Mao: Stacey Abrams, a candidate for the 2018 Democratic Board of Governors. The entire ad shows a photo of Collins hugging Abrams as the narrator explains that he worked with the Democrat when both were serving in the state legislature "to welcome the largest tax hike in Georgian history."
● TX Sen: Republican Senator John Cornyn's new commercial tracks down Democrat MJ Hegar for swearing … After the spot played several clips of Hegar who appeared to be cursing (her words are partially censored), the narrator insists that Cornyn "found a way to treat people with respect". We haven't found any evidence yet that Cornyn exhibits this type of shock! Shock! about Donald Trump's potty.
Hegar responded with a tweet, "Here's another ad for you, John! You're sold out and Texans see through your bullshit."
● Survey: Someday you will miss our huge collections of Senate polls. Maybe not today. Maybe not tomorrow, but soon and for the rest of your life until 2022.
AZ Sen: Ipsos for Reuters: Mark Kelly (D): 51, Martha McSally (R-inc): 43 (50-46 Biden) (mid-October: 51-41 Kelly)
AZ Sen: Morning Consult: Kelly (D): 48, McSally (R-inc): 44 (48-47 Trump) (mid-October: 49-41 Kelly)
CO-Sen: Morning consultation: John Hickenlooper (D): 50, Cory Gardner (R-inc): 42 (55-39 Biden) (mid-October: 50-40 Hickenlooper)
GA-Sen-A: Garin-Hart-Yang (D) for Jon Ossoff: Jon Ossoff (D): 48, David Perdue (R-inc): 43, Shane Hazel (L): 6 (51-44 Biden) (Aug .: 48- 46 Ossoff)
GA-Sen-A: Morning Consult: Perdue (R-inc): 46, Ossoff (D): 44 (48-48 presidential tie) (mid-October: 46-42 Perdue)
KS-Sen: Siena College for the New York Times: Roger Marshall (R): 46, Barbara Bollier (D): 42, Jason Buckley (L): 4 (48-41 Trump)
KY-Sen: Cygnal (R) for the Ready Education Network: Mitch McConnell (R-inc): 50, Amy McGrath (D): 40, Brad Barron (L): 5
MI Sen: Beacon Research (D) and Shaw & Company (R) for Fox News: Gary Peters (D-inc): 49, John James (R): 41 (52-40 Biden) (July: 48-38 Peters)
MI Sen: Dates for progress (D) for crooked media and indivisible: Peters (D-inc): 48, James (R): 43 (50-45 Biden) (Sept .: 47-42 Peters)
MI Sen: Morning Consult: Peters (D-Inc): 48, James (R): 42 (52-44 Biden) (mid-October: 49-40 Peters)
MI Sen: Public Policy Polling (D) for American Bridge: Peters (D-inc): 52, James (R): 43 (50-43 Biden) (beginning of October: 48-41 Peters)
MI Sen: Trafalgar Group (R) for Restoration PAC: John James (R): 50, Gary Peters (D-inc): 48 (47-45 Trump) (mid-October: 48-47 James)
MN-Sen: SurveyUSA for KSTP: Tina Smith (D-inc): 43, Jason Lewis (R): 42 (48-42 Biden) (beginning of October: 44-37 Smith)
MT-Sen: Strategies 360 (D) for NBC Montana: Steve Daines (R-inc): 48, Steve Bullock (D): 47 (51-43 Trump)
NC Sen: Consult tomorrow: Cal Cunningham (D): 48, Thom Tillis (R-inc): 42 (50-47 Biden) (mid October: 47-41 Cunningham)
NE-Sen: Cygnal (R) for the Ready Education Network: Ben Sasse (R-inc): 48, Chris Janicek (D): 18, Gene Siadek (L): 6
OK-Sen: SoonerPoll for News9 / Newson6: Jim Inhofe (R-inc): 56, Abby Broyles (D): 37 (59-37 Trump) (Sept .: 57-33 Inhofe)
SC Sen: Morning Consult: Jaime Harrison (D): 47, Lindsey Graham (R-inc): 45 (51-45 Trump) (mid-October: 48-42 Graham)
TX Sen: Consult tomorrow: John Cornyn (R-inc): 46, MJ Hegar (D): 41 (48-47 Biden) (mid-October: 47-38 Cornyn)
VA Sen: SSRS for George Mason University / Washington Post. Mark Warner (D-Inc): 57, Daniel Gade (R): 39 (52-41 Biden)
KS-Sen: Siena's poll comes a day after two duel internals showed very different snapshots of the race. Roger Marshall's allies at Keep Kansas Great published a Co / Efficient poll that found him between 51 and 39, while Barbara Bollier's supporters at Protect Our Care published a public policy polling poll that had a deadlock of 43 to 43.
Of this trio, Siena actually finds the group's closest presidential contest at 48-41 Trump, which would be a huge jump from his 56-36 win here four years ago. In contrast, the coefficient and PPP had him by 56-39 and 54-42 respectively.
MI Sen: The Trafalgar Group was one of Trump's friendliest pollers this cycle, and it was pretty auspicious for John James too: while every other company has put Senator Gary Peters at the top in every single poll published since March (if also just barely). In three previous Trafalgar polls, James was found to be in the lead or a tie.
MN-Sen: That poll found a surprisingly close race between Senator Tina Smith and Jason Lewis in a competition with very little outside spending. At this point, if both parties feel things are as tight as SurveyUSA notes, they must either act very quickly or keep their peace.
We saw two more surveys in the time between the two SurveyUSA numbers, but they didn't give a consistent picture of the state of the race. The poll by the Democratic firm Change Research for MinnPost had put Smith at 48-44 in mid-October, while a Civiqs poll for Daily Kos that closed on Tuesday gave her a wide lead of 54-43.
MT-Sen: Montana isn't getting as much electoral love as most of the other Senate battlefields, but this Strategies 360 poll matches what other companies have seen. Prior to taking this poll, the Daily Kos Elections poll average showed Senator Steve Daines was 48-47 ahead, which is exactly what Strategies 360 finds.
● MT-Gov: Democratic firm Strategies 360's new poll for NBC Montana gives Republican Greg Gianforte a 48:41 lead over Democrat Mike Cooney, while respondents prefer Donald Trump 51-43. Before this survey was started, Gianforte was ahead of the Daily Kos Elections survey average by a larger margin of 50 to 40, although only three other surveys have been published since Labor Day.
● TX-03: Democrat Lulu Seikaly runs the first commercial that we know uses Donald Trump's bleach injection remarks earlier this year, and it's done pretty well. The spot, which is part of a coordinated ad purchase with the DCCC, begins with a clip from Trump saying, "Then I'll see the disinfectant … by injection, inside …" while a man washes his clothes , on his large container of detergent and asks in disbelief: "This is the cure for COVID?"
A narrator steps in and says of the district Republican congressman, "If Van Taylor and Donald Trump ignore the experts, the results will be terrifying. You will make decisions based on partisan politics, not facts." He continues, "Taylor voted with Trump to provide a non-accountable slush fund to businesses but has opposed helping small businesses and health workers."
On a nice note, the camera reveals that the products in the laundry room have labels depicting the two Republicans together, including the aforementioned bleach container that says "DON'T DRINK VAN TAYLOR AND TRUMP POISON."
● TX-07, TX-22: The Texas Tribune reported Wednesday night that House Majority PAC was moving its advertising spending from the 7th Congressional District in Texas, where the group is feeling good about the re-election prospects of the newly elected Democratic MP Lizzie Fletcher, to the neighboring 22nd district in the southern suburbs of Houston diverted. The latter seat is held by retired Republican Pete Olson and is one of the best Team Blue pickup locations in the nation.
This is the second time this fall that a large outside group has changed their advertising schedule in the Houston media market, which covers both constituencies, though the circumstances are slightly different. Just over a month ago, the NRCC canceled all ad reservations in Houston, which appeared to be a huge sign of pessimism about its chances in Houston both the 7th and 22nd district.
However, the Congressional Leadership Fund allies continued to prioritize each race for the following month. CLF has spent $ 2.6 million through Sunday the 7th, where Republican Wesley Hunt tries to get Fletcher off the field, compared to a lesser $ 741,000 from HMP. The 22nd attracted significantly more external spending: CLF has spent $ 3.6 million in support of Fort Bend County's Sheriff Troy Nehls, while HMP and the DCCC have put a total of $ 5 million in support of Democrat Sri Preston Kulkarni have spent.
We have added this new information about the HMP switch to our triage tracker for the 2020 House daily Kos elections, which we will continuously update through election day.
FL-16: Data targeting (R) for Vern Buchanan: Vern Buchanan (R-inc): 53, Margaret Good (D): 38 (mid-October: 52-37 Buchanan)
IA-01: Monmouth University: Abby Finkenauer (D-inc): 52, Ashley Hinson (R): 44 (Aug .: 51-41 Finkenauer)
IA-02: Monmouth University: Rita Hart (D): 49, Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R): 43 (Aug .: 47-44 Miller-Meeks)
IA-03: Monmouth University: Cindy Axne (D-inc): 52, David Young (R): 43 (Aug .: 48-42 Axne)
IA-04: Monmouth University: Randy Feenstra (R): 48, J. D. Scholten (D): 42 (Aug .: 54-34 Feenstra)
MT-AL: Strategies 360 (D) for NBC Montana: Kathleen Williams (D): 46, Matt Rosendale (R): 46 (51-43 Trump)
NC-11: EMC research (D) for Moe Davis: Moe Davis (D): 45, Madison Cawthorn (R): 42 (49-47 Biden) (Sept .: 46-42 Davis)
NY-24: Public Opinion Strategies (R) for John Katko: John Katko (R-inc): 47, Dana Balter (D): 39, Steve Williams (Working Families): 3 (Aug .: 51-40 Katko)
OK-05: SoonerPoll for News9 / News On 6: Kendra Horn (D-inc): 49, Stephanie Bice (R): 47 (47-47 presidential tie) (Sept .: 45-44 Bice)
IA-01: We only saw one more poll in the time between the two Monmouth polls. In late September, the Congressional Leadership Fund released an in-house staff member from Basswood Research who found that the Northeast Iowa office was at a stoppage between 45 and 45.
IA-02: No one has published any other polls about this competition since Monmouth's last poll. This is somewhat of a surprise given that this open seat in southeast Iowa attracted more outside spending from the four major house groups through Sunday than any other district in the country.
IA-03: We haven't seen any other polls on this contest for this Des Moines district since Monmouth's August numbers. One thing we do know, however, is that the Big Four have spent significantly less than the aforementioned Iowa seats: as of Sunday, they had spent a total of $ 2.9 million here, compared to $ 5.8 million in the 1st district and 10.7 million US dollars in the 2nd.
IA-04: The biggest surprise in this series of house polls was that Monmouth found a pretty close race in a district in western Iowa that almost everyone no longer considered competitive after Randy Feenstra found white nationalist Rep. Steve King in the GOP area code had defeated in June.
However, unlike the other districts in Iowa, we have some internals from other companies recently, although they disagree on the state of the race. Earlier this week, Feenstra published a poll by American Viewpoint in which he was 54-31 while J.D. Scholten was quick to respond with a Change Research poll that found Feenstra only between 50 and 45.
NC-11: We haven't seen any other polls on this western North Carolina seat since Moe Davis posted its last in-house seat, but the Congressional Leadership Fund has spent over $ 800,000 to keep this district going. So far, however, the House Majority PAC and DCCC have not entered the competition to succeed former Republican MP Mark Meadows, who is now Trump's chief of staff.
Davis 'internal report didn't include president numbers, but inside Elections' campaign told Jacob Rubashkin that the poll found Joe Biden was between 49 and 47. Trump won here four years ago by 57:40, which would mean a massive shift to the left.
NY-24: This is the first internal GOP we've seen since Rep. John Katko's last survey more than two months ago, but we've seen closer numbers from other companies in the past few weeks. A poll in Siena in late September found Dana Balter was between 42 and 40 years old, while an internal public order poll in mid-October for her allies at House Majority PAC found she was between 45 and 43 years old.
OK-05: We have only seen one poll conducted in the time since the Sooner Poll last fielded. GOP firm Cole, Hargrave, Snodgrass and Associates, which said it had no customer, found Stephanie Bice a 49-45 lead in late September, while showing Donald Trump a 49-43 lead. Trump wore this district between 53 and 40 in the Oklahoma City area four years ago.
● Mayor of New York City, NY: Councilor Carlos Menchaca announced on Thursday that he would join the already overcrowded democratic competition next year to replace the rejected Mayor Bill de Blasio. Menchaca argued that he was "the only progressive, tested elected official" in the June immediate drain primary.
Menchaca, who would be the city's first Latino mayor as well as the city's first gay leader, was elected to a Brooklyn seat in 2013 by deposition of an incumbent in elementary school. The city council, which was the first elected official to back Cynthia Nixon's unsuccessful 2018 main bid against Democratic Governor Andrew Cuomo, was once an ally of de Blasio but spent most of his political career criticizing the mayor from the left.
In June, Menchaca even introduced a no-confidence resolution calling on Cuomo to consider ways of removing de Blasio from office "because he fails to protect security and promote the general public good", despite the city council never voting on it .
● CA ballot: The latest statewide poll by the Public Policy Institute of California found a small 49-45 head start for Prop. 15, called the "Split Roll" initiative, which is reducing a significant portion of a property tax freeze introduced by tax crusaders in Anti-Tax would 1978; The sample also favors Joe Biden 58-32. While the measure lies ahead, this is a notable drop from the 51-40 rand that the PPIC showed in mid-September.
We have seen two more polls in the meantime. A UC Berkeley poll, also conducted in mid-September, found Prop. 15 to be between 49 and 34, while a SurveyUSA poll was between 49 and 21 late last month.
● Redistribution: Next month's elections will be the last to take place before states have to redraw their congressional and legislative districts to reflect population changes in the 2020 census. That makes them critical in the fight against Gerrymandering. In a new article, Stephen Wolf of Daily Kos Elections looks at key elections for governors, lawmakers, supreme courts and electoral measures in states that could change those responsible for the restructuring process for the coming decade. Make sure you bookmark the spreadsheet version of this information as we will update it as the results come in.
As things stand today, if nothing changes in 2020, Republicans would draw 3-4 times as many congressional districts as Democrats, and the picture is similar for state legislative maps. But the Democrats are well positioned to flip a number of key races that would break the GOP's control over redistribution in major swing states. In just four states, which house one-fifth of the House's seats, control of the Ohio Supreme Court and state houses in Florida, North Carolina and Texas could determine whether or not the GOP has absolute power to roam there Democrats will have a seat The table.