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Morning Digest: Each Georgia Senate races coming down the house straight are getting nearer

GA-Sen-B (Lean R to Tossup): Although Georgia's special Senate elections are conducted according to different rules and with different characters, the same logic that drives our rating change in the regular elections also forces us to postpone this competition. The likelihood of a runoff is greater here, simply due to the fact that there are 21 candidates on the ballot, although some recent polls suggest that Democrat Raphael Warnock, the undisputed front runner, has a non-zero chance of ending it 3 November.

However, in the likely runoff event, it looks like a matchup in which Warnock competes against one of his two main Republican opponents, Sen. Kelly Loeffler or Rep. Doug Collins, will be evenly matched. Warnock also hopes to be the state's first black senator, a landmark opportunity that should help keep the excitement high among African American voters.

Of course, the same caveats apply here too, but a poor environment for the GOP has led the Georgia Democrats to pursue their long-held dreams.

NC-09 (certain R to probable R): National Democrats haven't targeted Republican freshman Dan Bishop in Ward 9, but he could be vulnerable if Tuesday turns out to be a really terrible night for his party.

Bishop only won one special election last year by a narrow margin of 51:49, and the court-overseen redistribution has left him a seat that is about 20% new to him and a point bluer. Progressive group 314 Action released a public opinion poll Tuesday in which Bishop cited his Democratic opponent, financial advisor Cynthia Wallace, aged just 45-43. Trump also only scored a 50-48 lead on that suburban seat in Charlotte, which he scored 54:43 in 2016. It would take a perfect storm for Wallace to get a win, but it's possible she could get one.

Election night

Election night: The Finello countdown: The big night is almost here and we have many exciting races in store. As the Democrats struggle to recapture the White House, they are also struggling to win back the Senate abroad. In addition, Team Blue is striving to strengthen its majority and to hold some important governorates. To help you with this, we have an hourly guide to the Senate, House of Representatives, and Governors races that can be seen on Tuesday. The fireworks will begin at 6:00 p.m. (CET) when polls close in most parts of Indiana and Kentucky.

We'll be live-blogging the entire action from 6pm ET Tuesday in the daily Kos elections. We'll also tweet the procedure. We hope to see you here tonight for a historic evening!

Prediction competition: It's the best time of the year: Right, the Daily Kos Elections forecasting competition is back! We're excited to announce that our good friends at the extraordinary Green & # 39; s Bakery have generously donated the prizes for the top three players: $ 50 gift cards for Green's online shop! That's right: if you dare, you can think outside the babka. For more information, including the competition rules and our entry form, click here.

senate

MI Sen: The conservative Senate Leadership Fund announced on Friday that it was booking $ 4.6 million for a last-minute advertising campaign.

MN-Gov:: The Star Tribune Briana Bierschbach tweeted Thursday that Mike Lindell, MyPillow's CEO and ardent Trump supporter, said at a Republican event that evening he would run against Democratic Governor Tim Walz in 2022. There's no direct quote yet from Lindell who showed confusing signs that his interest in the 2018 race never worked. After Tuesday we will learn a lot more about this competition and the owner of this Trumpesque pillow company.

Survey: The penultimate time more until it breaks, dear friends, the penultimate time more:

GA-Sen-A: Landmark Communications (R) for WSB-TV: David Perdue (R-inc): 47, Jon Ossoff (D): 47, Shane Hazel (L): 3 (48-47 Trump) (end of October: 50-45 Perdue )
GA-Sen-B: Landmark Communications (R) for WSB-TV: Raphael Warnock (D): 37, Kelly Loeffler (R-inc): 25, Doug Collins (R): 23, Matt Lieberman (D): 9 (48-47 Trump) (End of October: Warnock: 33, Collins: 27, Loeffler: 24)
KS-Sen: VCreek / AMG (R) (no customer): Roger Marshall (R): 47, Barbara Bollier (D): 43, Jason Buckley (L): 2 (Sept .: 45-42 Bollier)
MI Sen: Public Policy Polling (D) for Michigan Progress: Gary Peters (D-inc): 54, John James (R): 44 (54-44 Biden) (end of October: 52-43 Peters)
NC Sen: Cardinal point analysis (R): Thom Tillis (R-inc): 46, Cal Cunningham (D): 41, Shannon Bray (L): 6, Kevin Hayes (C): 2 (48-46 Trump) (July: 43- 43 tie)
NC Sen: East Carolina University: Cunningham (D): 48, Tillis (R-inc): 47 (50-48 Biden) (mid-October: 49-47 Cunningham)
NC Sen: Marist College for NBC: Cunningham (D): 53, Tillis (R-inc): 43 (52-46 Biden) (July: 50-41 Cunningham)
NC Sen: Rasmussen reports: Cunningham (D): 47, Tillis (R-inc): 44 (48-47 Trump) (end of October: 45-45 draws)
TX Sen: RMG Research for PoliticalIQ: John Cornyn (R-inc): 48, MJ Hegar (D): 42 (50-46 Trump)

NC Sen: This set gives Senator Thom Tillis both his best and worst polls in a while. In fact, Cardinal Point Analytics, which has been around for a while but has published few polls over the years, gives Tillis its best result against Cal Cunningham evereven though Republican firm Harper Polling had him at four in April.

In contrast, Marist has Tillis in bad shape than most other companies show him with a much smaller deficit. Cunningham scored a 10-point lead in surveys by SurveyUSA and RMG Group in mid-October, although both respondents were closer to it in recent publications.

Gubernatorial

NC-Gov: We have four new polls of the nation's most polled governor race:

Cardinal point analysis (R): Roy Cooper (D-inc): 47, Dan Forest (R): 45, Al Pisano (C): 3, Steven DiFiore (L): 1 (48-46 Trump) (July: 46) – 46 tie)
East Carolina University: Cooper (D-Inc): 54, Forest (R): 43 (50-48 Biden) (mid-October: 55-43 Cooper)
Marist College for NBC: Cooper (D-inc): 59, Forest (R): 40 (52-46 Biden) (July: 58-38 Cooper)
SurveyUSA for local media: Cooper (D-inc): 53, Forest (R): 42 (48-48 presidential tie) (Mid-October: 52-39 Cooper)

Cardinal Point's two July polls gave Dan Forest two of his top three polls of the year (a mid-June offer from unreliable Gravis Marketing tied), and the company has continued to be very optimistic about him over the past few days. While Governor Roy Cooper had a clear lead on most polls, Marist still finds him in better shape than almost any other pollster.

House

TX-06: The Texas Tribune reports that the far-right Club for Growth launched a $ 189,000 purchase to support Republican freshman Ron Wright in a competition that didn't attract a lot of outside money.

Survey::

NH-01, NH-02: The UNH polling system has a long history of finding wild, unexplained swings, and we got two just before election day. After repeatedly showing the representative of the 1st district, Chris Pappas, in strong form when his colleague, the MP Annie Kuster, fought in the more democratic 2nd district, the school now has exactly the opposite.

Could the UNH now be right that Pappas is in trouble on a seat that both Obama and Trump barely support? It is possible, but there is a big reason to be skeptical. It's telling that none of the big four groups outside the house had spent anything by Friday (unless you count $ 22 from the DCCC), so no one is acting like Matt Mowers is within striking distance, let alone ahead . Ward 1 will likely never be safe for either party, and mowers could still prevail, but if it did it would be a huge shock to both parties.

NJ-02: This is the first poll we've seen of this South Jersey coastal location since early October when another New Jersey school, Monmouth, found Amy Kennedy as a 49-44 year old. Both universities also showed Biden three points ahead in a district that Trump won between 51 and 46 four years ago.

Judiciary

Supreme Court of the MI: Two new polls before Democrats compete for the Michigan Supreme Court where Team Blue must win both seats on the ballot to flip the body and get a 4-3 majority. Each party nominates two candidates who all take part in the same officially impartial vote. Voters can choose up to two options, and the two candidates with the most votes win.

First, the Glengariff Group is for that Detroit News and WDIV:

Bridget Mary McCormack (D-inc): 23

Elizabeth Welch (D): 19

Mary Kelly (R): 15

Brock Swartzle (R): 5

The Democratic firm Public Policy Polling's Progress Michigan poll also polled voters, but did a slightly different job. In the survey, respondents were asked who their first choice was and they were asked about their second choice. Once the first and second choices were combined, it became apparent:

McCormack (D-inc): 39

Welch (D): 29

Kelly (R): 18

Swartzle (R): 14

This race was supported by the President and Senate competitions (the Detroit News An article on the Glengariff poll said: "Even among those who had already cast their votes, 62% of those polled said they didn't know who they voted for") but the stakes are enormous. Republicans have used their 4-3 majority on The Bank to thwart Democratic Governor Gretchen Whitmer's attempts to protect Michigander during the pandemic: In early October, a 75-year-old law was overthrown to break Whitmer's state of emergency to combat the outbreak had declared.

The State Supreme Court, as we have already written, could also play an important role in the upcoming round of restructuring. In 2018, Michigan voters passed an electoral measure that allows lawmakers to pull new lines out of the legislature's hands and turn them over to a new independent redistribution commission. However, the members of the commission could be bogged down, which would require judges to step in and set new boundaries. And anyone who complains about the new lines could be sued in a state court.

There is also the possibility that the US Supreme Court's conservative super-major could overturn its 2015 ruling that upheld a similar commission in Arizona. In this case, Michigan needs its own Supreme Court to back it up and ensure that the next few maps of the state are drawn fairly.

Electoral measures

FL ballot: Monmouth's recent Florida poll found Amendment 3 would establish a top 2 primary system for state racing starting in 2024, leading 53-30, below the 60% needed to pass. That's a postponement from late September when Monmouth was 63-21.

Data

County benchmarks: For the third and final episode of our deep dive into the main counties of the battlefields, we are on our way to the heartland. Maybe no one had Iowa on their swing critical list at the start of the cycle, but it became just that. Where can Democrats get the score? Where can you minimize the damage? And what key circles could lead them to victory? Click here and find out!

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