Regardless of excessive hopes of gaining a foothold in Iowa, the Democrats noticed a significant setback
Our project to calculate President 2020 results for all 435 congressional districts across the country hits Iowa, where Republicans had a strong year. Here is our full dataset, which we will continuously update as soon as the district-level election results are available that we need for our calculations.
Despite pre-election polls showing a close race, Donald Trump won Iowa 53:45 over Joe Biden, which for the Democrats was only a small improvement on Trump's 52:42 win in 2016 in a once highly competitive state. Trump also again promoted all four Hawkeye State congressional districts (a larger version of our map can be found here), though there was a notable shift.
Trump captured the 3rd district in the Des Moines region with just 49.1-49.0, which was significantly weaker than his 49-45 result in 2016. This move to the left could also benefit the new Democratic MP Cindy Axne, who defeated made all the difference in former Republican MP David Young 49-48 in a rematch of their 2018 battle.
Unfortunately for Team Blue, Districts 1st and 2nd in East Iowa voted about the same in this year's presidential race as they did in 2016. In fact, both seats supported Trump 51-47 four years after supporting him with an identical 49 -45 each spread. Republican MP Ashley Hinson has replaced Democratic MP Abby Finkenauer 51-49 in District 1, while Republican Mariannette Miller-Meeks currently has a six-vote lead over Democrat Rita Hart in District 2, South.
Trump also celebrated a 63:36 victory in the 4th District in the western part of the state, similar to his 61:34 performance in 2016. This district saw an unexpectedly close race in 2018 when white nationalist Rep. Steve King only held 50-47 ahead of Democrat JD Scholten. However, Senator Randy Feenstra knocked King off in this year's Republican primary, and Feenstra beat Scholten 62:38 in November.
The Republicans also retained control of the Iowa government, and if they choose to ignore decades-old precedents, they can create an even cheaper congressional map for themselves. Under state law, a bipartisan agency proposes cards to state lawmakers, but while lawmakers have always adopted them, the GOP can now simply reject the agency's proposals and implement their own gerrymanders or even repeal the law that the agency created in the first place.