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Dwell protection: Georgia Senate runoff elections

Tuesday ends the 2020 electoral cycle with two runoff elections to the U.S. Senate in Georgia, which will determine which party controls the chamber. In addition, there is a runoff election for a seat on the five-member civil service commission in Georgia. Note that due to the high volume of mail-in votes, we may not know the final result of these races tonight.

resources: Results • County Benchmarks

Wednesday, January 6, 2021 2:28:08 AM +00: 00 Steve Singiser

We are now approaching 70-75% of the total votes counted as we are approaching three million votes. Currently, both Republican incumbents (Loeffler and Perdue) have taken a fraction of the leadership. The concern for them, however, is that there is still a sizable amount of Metro Atlanta to be counted and the GOP leads are very, very small. It is not a crazy estimate to assume that nearly 600,000 votes will only come from Cobb, Gwinnett and DeKalb Counties.

Wednesday, January 6, 2021 02:56:14 AM + 00:00 AM

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Steve Singiser

So … here we are. At the moment, the two Republican incumbents are leading. But there are still at least 175,000 votes in the heavily Democratic DeKalb County (Atlanta), more than 50,000 votes in blue Chatham County (Savannah), and a handful of votes elsewhere on the Atlanta Metro (including likely 125,000-150,000 votes in Cobb County ). . The leads, which currently stand at 37,000 votes for Loeffler and 66,000 votes for Perdue, feel pretty meager for the red team.

Wednesday, January 6, 2021 03:01:16 AM + 00:00 AM

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Steve Singiser

The good news for the two Republican incumbents (technically their terms have expired) is that their leads continue to grow: Loeffler now has a 43,600 vote lead while Perdue now leads with 70,400 votes.

The bad news for the two Republican incumbents: pretty much all that's left is blue lawn. The three districts with the most outstanding votes (Chatham, Cobb and DeKalb) gave Senator David Perdue only 40%, 43% and 17% of the vote in November.

Wednesday, January 6, 2021 3:10:11 AM + 00:00 AM

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Steve Singiser

The fulcrum for democratic endeavors currently lies in DeKalb County. The early voting in this heavily democratic county, it seems, has yet to be counted. That's around 170,000 votes. That is why margins are important. If the Democrats carry out this early voting 50%, that translates to a net of about 85,000 votes. If they wear it 70%, it's a net of 119,000 votes.

David Perdue's lead in the fight against Jon Ossoff? 86,000 votes.

Wednesday, January 6, 2021 03:24:41 AM + 00:00 AM

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Steve Singiser

And there's the first curveball that could make the Democrats nervous. We just received a sizeable tranche of votes from Cobb County, and David Perdue and Kelly Loeffler led that group of votes. As a result, their leads have grown: Loeffler to 66,000 votes and Perdue to 96,000 votes. There is still quite a bit to be counted from DeKalb County, as well as Savannah, and a little more in the other blue counties of Atlanta like Fulton, Henry, and Gwinnett.

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