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Morning Digest: Our new information exhibits how Trump received this long-time district within the Crimson Home with simply 115 votes

This extremely narrow victory is the closest President result we have found for all of the 404 congressional districts we have released 2020 data to date, and we would be very surprised if it is postponed when we merge our remaining three states (Alabama , Louisiana and Pennsylvania). The second closest seat in last year's election was Iowa's third, from which Trump received 49.15-49.02, a 567 vote gap. Four years ago, Oregon's fourth seat was the most competitive, with Hillary Clinton ousting Trump by 554 votes, or 46.14-46.0 (Joe Biden took 51-47 this time).

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Our preliminary calculations suggested Biden Missouris won 2nd, but the proximity of the results prompted us to conduct a rigorous search for more accurate data, even including researching voting system software manuals to see if such data was even available could be. Fortunately it was.

In St. Louis County, which makes up about three-fourths of the district, each vote was assigned to a district by official election results, and no districts were divided between districts. We could therefore be sure that we can correctly assign each vote to the correct congressional district because we know which districts belong to which district.

However, the official results of the other two districts in the district, Jefferson and St. Charles, only assigned votes to the constituencies for election day. Postal votes, which made up almost a third of all votes cast in both counties, were only reported nationwide in both cases.

In situations where we have no other choice, techniques can help us gauge how to distribute unassigned votes like this to districts. So we came to the extremely tight preliminary numbers that Biden showed right in front of us. In this case, however, we could not be satisfied with an estimate given the narrow scope.

Fortunately, we learned that the software used in both counties can generate reports that break down election results by congressional district – in other words, they can automatically do the exact task we almost always have to do manually. After weeks of persecution and with the help of kind local officials willing to work with us, we received these mishaps for both Jefferson and St. Charles. We are very happy we went the extra mile as the end results differ from our original estimate and ended in an extraordinarily close victory for Trump.

It should be noted that despite these more detailed accounts from Jefferson and St. Charles, about a dozen votes (mostly absent) are not assigned. But since Trump's lead was more than 100 votes, we can safely say that he carried Missouri's 2nd Congressional District – just barely.

Trump zoomed out nationwide and won Missouri 57:41, which wasn't much of a change from his 57:38 win four years ago in what was once a highly competitive swing state. The Show Me State's remaining seating was also far from competitive. Biden took the 1st ward from Rep. Cori Bush in the city of St. Louis 80-18 while he carried the 5th ward from Democratic Rep. Emanuel Cleaver in Kansas City on the other end of state 59-40.

Trump, meanwhile, won the other five seats held by the GOP with more than 63% of the vote. The Republicans will have a chance to protect Wagner and possibly make life more difficult for Cleaver, as they will have complete control over the restructuring process.


LA-02: State Senator Karen Carter Peterson made an opening "six-figure" TV purchase ahead of next month's all-party primary to succeed her Democratic colleague, former MP Cedric Richmond. Peterson tells audience as the COVID-19 crisis tests the state, "We've been through tough times." She continues to talk about her work in helping the state recover from Hurricane Katrina and promises that she will "lead us out of this pandemic" in Congress.

TX-06: The head of the Fort Worth Police Officers Association, Manny Ramirez, recently told the Fort Worth star telegram that he was interested in running as a Republican in the upcoming special election to succeed the late GOP MP Ron Wright. The newspaper also mentions Andy Nguyen, who served as Wright's deputy chief of staff, as a potential contender. For his part, Nguyen told the newspaper that he was concentrating on the congressman's funeral.

Meanwhile, former MP Joe Barton, who has made it clear he won't run here, has also named MP Jake Ellzey as a possibility. Ellzey ran here in 2018 after a sex scandal caused Barton to step down, and he thought Wright was a surprisingly narrow 52-48 win in the GOP runoff. Two years later, Ellzey decisively won the primary for a certain red seat in the State House.

However, two other Republicans sound very unlikely. Tarrant County Sheriff Bill Waybourn said he had "absolutely no intention of running for this seat," while Waxahachie Mayor David Hill said he was "happy to serve the Waxahachie residents" . Hill added, "I'm sure there are more skilled people than me to fill the District 6 seat."


Redistribution: On Friday, the Census Bureau announced that the detailed data states need for post-2020 census redistribution won't be until September 30, if not later, six months after the original March 31 deadline and two months later The already belated July 30 target that it signaled was only possible last month.

These delays are having a significant impact on the reallocation of schedules, making it impossible for a number of states to meet their own statutory deadlines for drawing new maps this year, adding chaos and uncertainty to the reallocation process in many states. (The Brennan Center for Justice previously released a report examining which states in particular have deadlines that are now inconsistent with the expected data release schedule.)

As a result, many states are having to postpone their registration deadlines and primaries for the 2022 elections. In the case of New Jersey and Virginia, this even means that the upcoming 2021 general election will be held under cards created a decade ago, which means new cards may not be used until 2023.

In states where the restructuring of deadlines cannot be changed, e.g. For example, in time limits embedded in constitutions, it is likely that litigation will seek to change these non-observable time limits or that courts will take over the process. And while the 2020 elections apparently determined which party (if any) would have control of the redistribution In each state, this may now change in a few states, particularly Illinois.

Delays also increase the risk that the public will not have enough time to review and mobilize the proposed maps when state lawmakers publish their new proposals without notice before they are incorporated into law. In addition, the shortened deadline jeopardizes the ability of opponents to gerrymandering, to use litigation to enforce state constitutional provisions against gerrymandering or federal laws protecting the rights of color voters in a timely manner so that such claims can be resolved in time for the 2022 elections. That would mean illegal gerrymanders could stay in place next year even if they are ultimately knocked down in court at a later date.

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