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Morning Digest: Why So A lot At Stake in Subsequent 12 months's Illinois Supreme Court docket Races

The 3rd District is also open for an unusual reason: Last year, Democrat Thomas Kilbride became the first Supreme Court Justice to lose an election in Illinois history after failing the 60% majority he wanted for another Ten year term required.

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As a result of this loss, state law requires that a new election be held at the next available opportunity – in this case November 2022. Contrasted with a keep election where voters simply vote “yes” or “no” if they keep an incumbent in office, this race will be a traditional guerrilla issue between multiple candidates, hence the possibility of a LaHood candidacy. Kilbride's court-appointed successor, Democrat Robert Carter, has said he will not run, so the Democrats must find their own new candidate as well.

The 3rd Ward will be an important battleground because if Republicans flip it while they have a seat in the neighboring 2nd Ward, they will also flip control of the court, which the Democrats control 4-3. The third is a particularly mature GOP target as he voted for Donald Trump 51-47 last year, and in the medium term, this type of lean would likely create serious headwinds for the Democrats. That same factor should help Republicans hold on to Ward 2, who supported Joe Biden 55-43, especially as Judge Michael Burke seeks re-election.

(There are also election campaigns in the 1st and 4th districts, each held by a Democrat and a Republican, but incumbents should both be given strong preference.)

However, the ultimate stakes are even higher. As Stephen Wolf explains in a recent article, five years ago the Illinois Supreme Court put down a Republican-backed redistribution campaign that gave compact districts priority over fair results. Maps reflecting these priorities would have given the GOP an undue advantage thanks to a decade-long history of racist redlining and white flight segregation in Chicago, with color pickers heavily focused on urban areas.

However, a Republican-led court could give such an initiative the green light, which in turn could lead to perverse results, such as Democrats winning fewer seats than Republicans in Congress despite getting more votes in nationwide races, such as almost always the all-blue Illinois is the case. The same outcome could happen even in the State House and Senate if Republicans take control of the legislature.

Supporting concerns about possible Congress and Legislative cards is a very problematic card for the Supreme Court itself. Illinois is one of only four states that elect their Supreme Court members by district rather than state. A map is used that has not been redrawn in over half a century. This has resulted in extreme maldistribution, with fewer people living in rural Districts 4 and 5 in the conservative southern part of the state combined as the 2nd district, which is located in the democratic suburbs of Chicago.

Republicans have benefited from this condition for the past decade, which federal jurisprudence does not see as a problem, as the courts say judicial districts do not have to have the same population as judges are not representative officials. But only because the legislature doesn't to have Redrawing the court's map doesn't mean they can't. In fact, they are empowered to do so, and it is possible that they will: Reporter Dan Vock says there have been reports "that new court cards are in the works," although he adds that he has not yet been able to confirm them.

Democrats in the legislature may seek new lines to prop up their majority in the Supreme Court, but that would also correct a serious imbalance that strengthens one part of the state over another for no legitimate reason. And that could end up leaving LaHood out in the cold, both on the Congressional front and in the judiciary.

senate

NH-Sen: Republican Governor Chris Sununu recently made some very strange comments when asked on a radio show if he had spoken to Mitch McConnell about running for the Senate had not spoke to McConnell, then immediately went back and admitted that he:

I haven't spoken to Mitch McConnell about this problem. I talked to him about another one – no, I take that back. I spoke to Mitch. I'm sorry, no, I spoke to Mitch McConnell. I've spoken to a number of senators, frankly, I've spoken to a number of governors. They come and go.

They come and go, as we remember, like memories of conversations with Senate minority leaders: Sununu's blur came two days after Politico reported that McConnell had "personally" hired the governor to challenge Democratic Senator Maggie Hassan. At the end of February, Sununu said he would be "watching" the race in "six, seven months". So if he is still sticking to this timeline, it means that he will not get an answer until the end of summer at the earliest.

OH-Gov, OH-Sen: After briefly flirting with a Senate campaign after Republican Senator Rob Portman announced his resignation earlier this year, former GOP MP Jim Renacci sounds like a governor or a bankrupt. Regarding his failed run against Democratic Senator Sherrod Brown in 2018, Renacci said in new remarks to Fox, "My biggest mistake and regret was that I jumped into a Senate race because people wanted me to fill in, when I was fully prepared and running for the governor. "

In this cycle, after spending almost a year looking for open governorship, Renacci moved to Senate competition after Republican Josh Mandel was eliminated from the race. To his great chagrin, Renacci lost his offer, while Mike DeWine, who easily secured the GOP nomination for governor, won his offer. Now, Renacci is looking for some sort of indirect revenge and reiterating that he is still pondering a challenge for DeWine, which he continues to throw in the trash for his aggressive efforts to protect Ohio from the coronavirus pandemic.

Renacci also claims that a survey he commissioned shows that he runs DeWine, but he hasn't released all of the details we need to be included in the Digest, nor has he offered a timeline for a decision.

PA Sen: Lt. Governor John Fetterman released a new poll on a hypothetical Democratic primary for the Senate that shows he is way ahead of all his rivals, actually and potentially. The survey conducted by Data for Progress found that Fetterman holds 40%, while Rep. Conor Lamb, who is considering the race but has not yet made an offer, ranks second at 21. They are followed by State Rep. Malcolm Kenyatta at 9 a.m., Rep. Chrissy Houlahan at 8 a.m., Montgomery County Commissioner Val Arkoosh at 5 a.m., and Senator Sharif Street at 2 a.m., with only 14% undecided. Like Lamb, Houlahan and Street are still exploring the race while Kenyatta and Arkoosh are already running.

Governors

MI-Gov: Conservative radio host Tudor Dixon has just joined the GOP area code for governors, but whether she'll be ranked the first notable Republican candidate in the race is hard to say: she doesn't have a Wikipedia page and her Twitter follows fewer than 8,000.

NM-Gov: Joe Monahan, a reporter from New Mexico, says Brig is retired from the National Guard. General Greg Zanetti is considering an offer against Democratic Governor Michelle Lujan Grisham next year. As early as 1994, Zanetti unsuccessfully searched for the GOP nod for the lieutenant governor and in 2009 carried out a failed campaign for the governor, which he broke off after just a few months.

PA Gov: Republican MP Doug Mastriano, whose resignation the Democrats called for his role in sparking the January 6th Uprising in the US Capitol, was named as a possible candidate for this open seat. He is currently publicly considering an offer. He also claims he would have the support of the most powerful man in Republican politics if he took the plunge: in a radio interview, Mastriano said he met with Donald Trump for endorsement and even encouraged Trump to run.

Initially, an unnamed Trump aide declined to comment on Mastriano's allegations to the Associated Press, although another Trump official (or possibly the same) later confirmed it Philadelphia InquirerJonathan Tamari that the two men had met. However, this aide made it clear that Trump did not issue endorsement.

Regardless, Mastriano has been trying to position himself as the Keystone State's trumpest politician for some time: Associated Press notes that he claims to have met with Trump 15 times (including an Oval Office meeting after last year's election where he received a positive COVID test during the meeting). If Mastriano gets in, he'll face stiff competition for Trump's support as another Trump favorite, former MP (and 2018 Senate candidate) Lou Barletta is already in the running.

House

AZ-02: Democratic MP Daniel Hernandez made an offer for this open seat in the Tucson area. After Senator Kirsten Engel and MP Randy Friese, Hernandez is the third well-known Democrat to have submitted an offer.

Prior to being elected to the State House in 2016, Hernandez was an intern with former MP Gabby Giffords and immediately helped her after being shot in the head in a 2011 mass shooting at an inaugural event she hosted outside a supermarket. Hernandez, then only 20, stopped Gifford's bleeding with his bare hands and was blamed for saving her life.

In particular, Hernandez is the second person linked to this shootout to vie for that seat: Friese was the trauma surgeon who attended to Giffords when she arrived at the hospital.

CA-48: While Democratic MP Harley Rouda made it clear he was keen on a rematch when he conceded Republican Michelle Steel after his narrow defeat last year, he never officially announced a campaign, and may never do so. In a new article on the impact of redistribution on next year's elections, Bloomberg's Greg Giroux characterizes Rouda as "running again," a characterization that Rouda reiterates in his own remarks on Giroux. We're going to flip the switch for Rouda's status, but for the sake of clarity, we always like to see a press release or news report when a campaign actually starts.

KY-01: Former Hopkins County Republican Party leader David Sharp says he will challenge Rep. James Comer in next year's GOP primary, although the exact nature of his complaints with the congressman is not entirely clear. Referring to a study by the Center for Effective Legislation, Sharp claimed that Comer "ranks in the bottom third of Republicans" in terms of effectiveness, which is not the case, at least for the most recent Congress (it ranked 121st out of 205) members rated in-house).

Legislative skills are also usually not something that dissatisfied Conservatives persecute incumbents. As a rule, such intra-party dust clouds are about not owning the libraries enough or about demonstrating loyalty to Donald Trump. Regardless of this, the rural 1st district of western Kentucky will return a Republican to DC next year: According to calculations by the Daily Kos Elections, he voted 73-26 for Trump, making it one of the redest districts in the country.

mayor

Anchorage, AK Mayor: As of Wednesday, a total of 90,000 votes were counted for last week's officially impartial general election, and Conservative Dave Bronson has a lead of just over 1,200 votes – a 51-49 lead – over Democrat Forrest Dunbar. While domestic ballots can be received by Friday, the local clerk says there are very few left overall.

New York City, NY Mayor: The conservative Manhattan Institute commissioned the Republican firm Public Opinion Strategies to conduct a June 22nd survey on the immediate runoff Democratically Area code where 2020 presidential candidate Andrew Yang leads Brooklyn City President Eric Adams, 22-21, with former Urban Sanitation Commissioner Kathryn Garcia taking 13%. After the ranking process has been simulated, Adams moves ahead in the 11th and final round, displacing Yang 52-48.

Other races

Erie County, PA executive branch: Voters in Erie County, Pennsylvania will have an opportunity in November to vote for the first trans-county manager in American history following Tyler Titus, president of the Erie School Board's victory in Tuesday's Democratic primary.

Titus ousted Erie County Councilor Carl Anderson 32-31, but instead of endorsing them, Anderson said he plans to decide next month whether to run for enrollment this fall. However, this may not be an option because the Erie Times News"Matthew Rink writes that state law" restricts a candidate who has lost in an elementary school from submitting to a general election. "

Titus will compete against Brenton Davis, a contractor who lost Republican Elementary School in 2017 to get the right to retire incumbent Kathy Dahlkemper, a Democrat who previously represented the area in the US House of Representatives from 2009-2011 to move. Erie County, which is located in the state's northwest corner, had double-digit backing for Barack Obama in both races, but it's been a very competitive turf since then: Donald Trump captured County 48-46 in 2016 while Joe Biden won 50-49 here four years later .

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