Pollsters claim they don't know why the polls dropped significantly in 2020 and were "too cheap" for Biden
A new report on the 2020 presidential contest shows that polls at both state and national levels were way off the mark and consistently “too cheap” for President Biden – and polls cannot explain why.
A comprehensive report published by the American Association for Public Opinion Research shows that 2020 national polls were the most inaccurate in four decades, with more state numbers than in 20 years.
In the last two weeks before election day, Politico reveals, based on the study, that national polls fell 4.5 percentage points, while state polls fell 5.
That is well outside the typical “margin of error” of 3 percent, as it is called by a majority of the surveys.
Politico adds that in the 2020 presidential election "most of the mistakes were unidirectional".
"In terms of the vote gap, the national polls were 3.9 points too cheap for current President Joe Biden, and the state polls were 4.3 points too cheap for Biden," they write.
A new, highly anticipated report from the leading polling association confirms how wrong the 2020 polls were. But nine months after this closer than expected competition, people asking why are still looking for answers. https://t.co/1H7qLiSOky
– POLITICO (@politico) July 19, 2021
RELATED: Democratic pollsters admit they screwed it up again in 2020
2020 presidential polls were wrong – experts don't know why
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It was obvious that the 2020 presidential election, like the 2016 election, was way off the mark.
A report that confirms the obvious is nice to see.
What is not nice to see is that the so-called experts cannot say exactly why an industry that voters can rely on to decide whether to vote or not has been so far away for years .
And they only seem wrong in favor of one political party.
"In contrast to 2016, when pollsters were able to identify factors such as the educational gap as reasons for the underestimation of Donald Trump," writes Politico, "this time the experts were unable to identify exactly the problem they are now facing."
Biden's win delayed some pollsters, but the 2020 failure was worse than 2016 than in 2016
"National polls on the 2020 presidential campaign were the least accurate in 40 years, while state polls were the worst in at least 2 decades."
Via @POLITICO_Steve https://t.co/5r1Garahhm
– Alex Thompson (@AlexThomp) July 19, 2021
RELATED: 5 Texas Democrats Test Positive For COVID After A Maskless Flight Out Of Town To Avoid A Vote
Surveys is a dying industry
Politico released a report back in April describing a joint statement by five leading Democratic pollsters trying to explain "why they screwed it up again in 2020".
Her many excuses for injustice included:
Deterioration in trust in public institutions such as government, media and polls.
An underestimated turnout by Trump supporters.
Democrats stayed home and answered the phone more often than Republicans during the pandemic.
You clearly have an idea of what the problem is.
New: Within the democratic election autopsy. Five of the party's largest companies got involved in a previously unreported investigation into what went wrong in 2020.
They have theories about what caused the errors, but no consensus (yet) on how to fix them. https://t.co/hwCXq0uGWI
– Steven Shepard (@POLITICO_Steve) April 13, 2021
Perhaps the most egregious example of Biden benefiting from polls during the election was an ABC News / Washington Post poll just a week before election day that suggested the Democrat was 17 points ahead of the swing state of Wisconsin former President Trump had won.
Professional pollsters should have known something was catastrophically wrong.
Biden would win Wisconsin by less than 1 percentage point and less than 21,000 votes in a state that has cast well over 3.2 million votes.
How many Trump supporters stayed home thinking the state was lost based on polls that told them their candidate had no chance of winning?
“That's their strategy,” said pollster John McLaughlin shortly after the election. "You want to suppress your voice."
A week ago, the Washington Post reported, citing its new poll, that Biden was 17 points ahead of Trump in Wisconsin, 57 to 40 percent. What a total, total, total embarrassment. Current actual difference: 7/10 of one percent. https://t.co/2tRwanTn5n pic.twitter.com/8D5ZT37yF9
– Byron York (@ByronYork) November 4, 2020
A pollster told Politico in April: "Twenty was an 'oh, s ***' moment for all of us."
The fact is, polls had also shown that the Democrats would extend their lead in the House of Representatives, which most definitely did not happen. While the Democrats retained control, the Republicans swapped a significant number of seats.
At the state level, it was expected that the Democrats would turn over seven chambers of parliament in 2020. Instead, Republicans incorporated two state legislatures – both in New Hampshire – and kept the rest.
2020 was such a catastrophe for the polls that the experienced pollster Frank Luntz declared his job "done" in the days after the election.
"The job of political pollster is done," said Luntz. "It's devastating to my industry."
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