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Why the Democrats' immigration hopes are based on a Senate MP decision

As the Democrats in Congress renew their push to pass a comprehensive budget balancing measure, the Senate MP heard arguments from both parties on Friday over whether to include immigration laws in the proposed $ 3.5 trillion package.

Democrats hope the MP will provide a permanent residence route – which could affect more than 8 million undocumented immigrants in the US – to stay in the bill, which gives Democrats a chance to achieve a long-term priority without being blocked by the filibuster.

Whether the Democrats' strategy succeeds depends on the interpretation of a woman whose name rarely makes the headlines – Elizabeth MacDonough, the Senate MP who interprets the rules of the Senate. MacDonough's verdict is not yet known after Friday's arguments, and she has not indicated when she will publish her decision. However, the ruling could have a significant impact.

If MacDonough signs immigration regulations – which will have to "more than randomly" impact the budget to implement the cut – it could give 8 million undocumented immigrants legal residence in the US, a necessary step along the way to citizenship.

According to NBC, the Democrats argued to MacDonough on Friday that the immigration deal was budgetary as it would require $ 139.6 billion of additional spending over the next 10 years on Medicare, Medicaid, child tax credits, and other federal benefits .

However, if MacDonough finds the immigration measure not relevant to the draft budget, it could undo the Democrats' plans for immigration reform. But that cannot be taken for granted; While this rarely happens, MPs decisions are non-binding and the Democrats could overrule MacDonough's mind and include immigration reform in the budget anyway.

If they go down that route, Vice President Kamala Harris will make the decision. As Vox's Dylan Scott pointed out in January, Harris is also President of the Senate and has ultimate authority over its proceedings.

According to Scott, "however, the Vice President has not overruled a MP since 1975 when Nelson Rockefeller pushed the Senate's Council to change filibuster rules."

Democrats could potentially fire MacDonough as well, as Republicans did with MP Robert Dove in 2001 after then Senate majority leader Trent Lott (R-MS) reportedly disagreed with Dove's decision to put Senate Republicans on a reconciliation process limit per year.

In February, MP Ilhan Omar (D-MN) called for MacDonough to be replaced after MacDonough decided not to include a minimum wage increase in the Covid-19 aid package.

Abolish the filibuster.

Replace the MP.

What is a democratic majority if we cannot pass our priority bills? This is unacceptable.

– Ilhan Omar (@IlhanMN) February 26, 2021

While Senate Democrats vowed to continue pushing for a $ 15 minimum wage, they ultimately removed that provision from the Covid-19 bailout package to meet MacDonough's decision.

If MacDonough decides that immigration reform legislation is not relevant to the upcoming reconciliation package and the Democrats don't push the issue, it could be a death knell for the chances of immigration reform in a 50-50 Senate.

A Senate regulation from the 1980s could determine the fate of the immigration reform

The participation of the Senate MP in the budget reconciliation process goes back to the so-called Byrd rule. Named for Sen. Robert Byrd of West Virginia, the rule restricts what can be included in voting packages.

As Vox's Dylan Scott explained earlier this year,

Byrd suggested and the Senate codified restrictions on what can happen through budget reconciliation to ensure that the process is actually used on matters affecting the federal budget. These restrictions are now colloquially known as the Byrd's rule.

According to the rule, settlement invoices cannot change social security. They cannot be expected to increase the federal deficit after 10 years. They must have an impact on federal spending or income – and their impact on spending or income must be “more than incidental” to their political impact.

Although the 1974 Budget Act contains criteria for determining what is considered an alien measure, it is still open to the Chairman's interpretation of whether a proposal meets those criteria.

Regarding immigration, Republicans argue that the laws put forward by the Democrats are not purely budgetary; Democrats say it's a budget issue as immigration affects things like benefits, spending, and the economy.

Senator John Cornyn (R-TX), the senior Republican on the Senate Judiciary Committee on immigration, tweeted his criticism of the Democrats' strategy on Friday, saying they "insist on pursuing bipartisan bills rather than bipartisan immigration reform."

Ds always fail when it comes to immigration reform, even if they control the White House, Senate, and House of Representatives. They insist on pursuing bipartisan bills rather than bipartisan immigration reforms, starting with bills like our bipartisan Boundaries Resolution Act. https://t.co/m58RTllR6e

– Senator John Cornyn (@JohnCornyn) September 10, 2021

Despite the limits of reconciliation, the strategy has clear advantages in a polarized Senate – in contrast to an independent law on immigration reform, the budget balancing process is not subject to the filibuster and can only be passed with a simple majority.

Even if MacDonough signs immigration regulations in the Reconciliation Act, the larger measure in the Senate still faces a potentially rocky future. Though he didn't look specifically at immigration, Senator Joe Manchin (D-WV), a common thorn in the side of progressive Democrats, told CNN on Sunday that he was not taking a $ 3.5 trillion reconciliation measure would support. Senator Krysten Sinema (D-AZ) has also signaled that she will not support the proposed $ 3.5 trillion spending.

The bill for the Reconciliation Act is due to be presented on Wednesday before the September 27 vote on a separate, bipartisan infrastructure law.

On Sunday, Manchin accused his colleagues in an interview with ABC's George Stephanopoulos of holding the infrastructure bill hostage to the reconciliation package; However, chairman of the Senate Budget Committee, Bernie Sanders (I-VT), told Stephanopoulos that both bills are urgently needed.

"I happen to think Joe Manchin is right, the physical infrastructure is terribly important," Sanders said on Sunday. "But I think the needs of the people of our country, working families, children, the elderly, the poor are even more important, and we can and must do both."

In an evenly divided Senate, Democrats would need every member of their parliamentary group to support the package in order for it to pass, with Harris having the casting vote in her role as Senate President.

Biden has repeatedly called for a path to citizenship

If the Democrats manage to pass immigration laws as part of the reconciliation package, it will be a great achievement for the party. Biden and the Democrats in Congress previously proposed a citizenship route as a stand-alone bill, and a July court ruling illegal the Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals program, better known as DACA, also raises the issue .

In February of this year, shortly after he took office, Biden's US Citizenship Act of 2021 was passed in the House of Representatives. The bill provides an eight year process to young people raised by their parents before 1st such as Haiti, Myanmar and Syria. Agricultural workers and other key workers would also be subject to the legislation.

The house law for the reconciliation of immigration is here! Here's one to what it says – but a BIG caveat first. This is NOT the final version.

The bill is first given a rating and then compared with the Senate version in a conference – and the parliamentarian still has to approve. pic.twitter.com/5OYAcDeJOa

– Aaron Reichlin-Melnick (@ReichlinMelnick) September 11, 2021

All in all, according to Vox's Nicole Narea, this bill offers a comprehensive plan for the approximately 10.5 million undocumented immigrants currently in the United States to become citizens:

First, immigrants could get work permits and travel abroad with the confidence that they would be allowed to re-enter the US. After five years, if they pass background checks and pay taxes, they could apply for a green card. Immigrants who fall under the Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals program and temporary protection status, as well as farm workers, can apply for green cards immediately.

This bill also suggests addressing issues in the immigrants' home countries, such as violence and dire economic problems that help encourage immigration from Central America to the United States.

The immigration reforms included in the Reconciliation Act could be tighter, according to Hill, with an emphasis on allowing immigrants to apply for legal permanent residence – a green card – but no direct mention of citizenship.

Still, according to the New York Times, the move would extend legal status to four categories of non-citizens: DREAMers, recipients of temporary protection, nearly a million farm workers, and millions of "indispensable workers."

The protection of DREAMers is particularly urgent. Although the program has acted as a shield for many young immigrants since its inception in 2012, allowing them to work depending on where they live, complete a college education, and sometimes receive benefits such as state tuition and state-subsidized health insurance, is its future uncertain.

In particular, DACA is – again – at risk after a federal judge in Texas ruled it unconstitutional earlier this year, freezing the program's ability to accept new applicants and putting hundreds of thousands of immigrants at risk. The Justice Department appealed the case on Friday.

Now that the Biden government's DACA appeal is before the deeply conservative 5th

"If we don't move, there is a very real chance these people will be deported," Senator Dick Durbin (D-IL) told the New York Times.

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